Is this project’s order book as solid as the model assumes?
An energy borrower’s revenue rests on a supply chain a credit file never reaches. The single point that could interrupt delivery is the one that isn’t in the model.
Settled as the Lending Evidence PackCredit diligence reads the accounts, the contracts and the strike price. It rarely reads the chain underneath them — the sub-tier sole-source whose failure would interrupt the build the facility is lent against. Supply-chain dependency, never a market, price or return call.
What the order book actually rests on.
Typical reader: a project-finance lender or credit team.
The order books are growing; the chain beneath them stays unseen.
Ofgem’s RIIO-3 determination (4 December 2025) confirmed a £28bn regulated allowance for 2026–2031, and Allocation Round 7 and 7a (January–February 2026) added some 14.7 GW of 15-year indexed offtake contracts — the dated order books a lender prices against. But the chain underneath them is where a credit file stops looking, and the same sub-tier sole-source can sit under several borrowers a model reads as unrelated. Supply-chain dependency, never a market, price or return call. See what changed →